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The Great Hurricane Absence

October 7, 2017

By Steve Campbell

You will see story after story in the news about how hurricanes are stronger and more frequent. They will tell you that Harvey and Irma are the worst-ever storms and are unprecedented. They will scare up the looming threat of “Global Warming” as if it were a proven fact. They will say that Al Gore predicted this a decade ago in his movie An Inconvenient Truth (2006).

Do not be fooled. That is all a lie. While Harvey and Irma were devastating, they were far from “the worst”. Global Warming has proven to be a myth. Al Gore was dead wrong then and now. What Gore predicted was the exact opposite of what happened. Hurricanes are right now less frequent and milder on average than they were when Vice President Al Gore made that movie.

The data on hurricanes is widely and freely available. So, there is no excuse for the panic-mongering regarding this subject.

The “Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)” index is calculated by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy — An index that combines the numbers of systems, how long they existed and how intense they became. It is calculated by squaring the maximum sustained surface wind in the system every six hours that the cyclone is a Named Storm and summing it up for the season. It is expressed in 104 kt2.

This is basically a measure of seasonal hurricane strength as it varies from year to year and should definitively answer the question of whether hurricanes are stronger and more frequent, or not.

The chart below shows the data for 1985 to 2016:

Accumulated Cyclone Energy 1985 to 2016

While there was indeed a peak in 2005, the index has been substantially less – not only in the actual year of Al Gore’s movie debut, but also in every year since then.

To address the frequency of hurricanes, let us examine another NOAA dataset.

The graph below shows the number of days between major hurricane landfalls in the United States. Major Hurricanes are defined as category 3,4 or 5. 

Days Between Landfall of Major Hurricanes in the U.S. Credit NOAA

You see that the dates of the original graph (produced by Roger Pielke Jr.) were from 1900 to June 15, 2017. A new record gap between storms had occurred at that time. This author has added (the orange parts) the intervening time to show the end of the Great Hurricane Absence. You see that this gap (nearly twelve years) is almost twice as long as the previous record in 1900. The “trend” (red line) is now toward slightly longer gaps between storms. i.e., Strong hurricanes are less frequent now.

The IPCC’s website defines their purpose:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body for assessing the science related to climate change… The main activity of the IPCC is to provide at regular intervals Assessment Reports of the state of knowledge on climate change. The latest one is the Fifth Assessment Report which was finalized in November 2014.

With that in mind, here is the IPCC’s statement on hurricane frequency:

IPCC AR5 (2013) Working Group I, Chapter 2

Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century … No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.

The deadliest hurricane in American history was the 1900 storm in Galveston, Texas. Speaking from my own family’s oral history:

My great-grandfather Ben was visiting his brother in Galveston when all were trapped by a rising storm surge that reached the attic of the two-story house before it broke apart. Ben was washed across Galveston Bay to Hitchcock, Texas in the midst of that devastating tempest. By then, Ben had lost his brother and all his brother’s family, who died along with six to ten thousand others on the island and the mainland (Galveston had less than 38,000 inhabitants at the time). Ben barely survived by clinging to a wooden bedstead while being torn by building debris with lots of exposed nails.

Ben told his tale and showed his horrible scars to his little granddaughter who later told her son – that’s me. This makes the 1900 storm very real to this author.  

Now that you have the real story, read and watch as the alarmists try to tell you that Harvey or Irma is the worst storm ever and these hundred-year storms are happening every year.

You can tell them of the “Great Hurricane Absence” and show them these graphs. You can quote the IPCC, a group founded to study (allegedly objectively) the idea of manmade climate change. You can tell them that the deadliest hurricane in American history was the 1900 storm in Galveston, Texas.

When you tell the alarmists, they will not believe you because it does not fit their narrative of “Global Warming.” To them, nothing that happened before they were born was real. And nothing since then that does not fit their myth, is fact.

In Irons

SteveTrucker2  Homepage

July 29, 2016

Foreword:  I am moving old posts from my former wordpress site to Goingwalkabout.blog.  I have never found a way to do this in “Bulk” transfer so it is bit-by-bit and provides a stream of “new” posts that readers may not have seen.

Fonda, New York  (We decided it was named for Henry, not Jane)

The phrase “in irons” is used in sailing.  I had a sailboat once.  Actually, I had two.  The first was an 18 foot boat on a trailer that would not fit in the garage.  I spent a lot of time, effort and money on this boat and got a few hours of pleasure out of it.  It would have been far cheaper and far less trouble to rent a boat every few months for a few hours of sailing.  Unless you live on a lake where you could leave the boat in the water and unless you are comfortably retired and can spend some time actually sailing, I would advise you to do the same.

The far better solution for wannabe sailors is to have a friend with a boat.  That way you can make day trips on a sailboat or maybe even spend a weekend, sleeping in the tiny little guest bunk, while the owner enjoys the Captain’s cabin.  He’s entitled to the luxury, of course since he has to pay for and maintain this white elephant.  I had a friend with a boat and it was a bit of fun. He was dating my wife’s friend and the four of us spent a few days hanging around the boat in dock and we made a day trip on Galveston Bay… before  Hurricane Ike.  With the insurance money, he bought an apartment on the Seawall in Galveston.  Notice he did not buy another sailboat.  He learned his lesson and went looking for a friend with a boat, as well.

Where was I?  Oh yes  – “in irons”.   As you may know, sailboats can “sail close to the wind” by tacking – actually moving opposite to the wind direction at about a 45 degree angle.   By reversing in a zig-zag fashion, the boat can move upwind.  After the “zig” the sailor will turn by 90 degrees and the boat will turn to swing around and, having passed directly into the wind and then, carried by momentum , it will “come about” and the wind will fill the sail on the opposite side (the zag).

If, however, the helmsman is slow off the mark and does not pull off this maneuver sharply, the boat can wind up pointed directly into the wind, having lost all momentum.  Steering is now useless, because there is no moving water for the rudder to bear against and turn the boat further.  The boat is now “in irons” and will slowly begin to be pushed backward, losing the progress made by tacking.  It is something that is difficult to remedy.  Much progress can be lost.  At the end of this post, I will tell you the secret to getting “out” of “in irons”.

Now, I went through all that to describe why I am where I am now.  I am learning that shipping industry has participants that demonstrate the worst qualities of humanity.  They are hostile and vindictive.  They are petty and arbitrary.  They can be that way because they represent a lot of business to the freight companies.  The freight companies will put up with this abuse for the business.  Or, rather I should say, they will allow their drivers to be abused for that reason.

This cannot be assigned to companies in general, it has more to do with particular installations.  I arrived early at this particular receiver and was turned away because that is what they do.  Now, I have to go park at a truck stop and wait.  Unfortunately, the Federal Regulations say I have to stop driving before I  will be welcome at the receiver.  So I try to arrange a new time.  The management at this installation prefers not to do that, but to sarcastically call me a “no-show”.

So, I terminated that conversation and reported as “late” (while I was still early) and requested a “repower” on the satellite communication unit.  A repower is where someone could come and get my load and take it to the installation on time.  That did not  work and that is understandable, because there are only so many trucks in the company and besides, they operate with a skeleton crew at night and things seldom happen then.  So, finally, “dispatch” tells me to go in the morning to the same gate.  When I arrive, the gate guard makes a call and sure enough they can use this shipment to put meat on the shelves on the weekend.  So they assign a door for unloading.  But…one last check shows that the order has been cancelled.  I guess it is more important for the management to punish a driver for being early than to put product on the shelves for the weekend.

So, I am “in irons”  making no progress and no money for at least 19 hours more.  I took this opportunity to scan in my trip sheet with the previous load (with 8 days of hotel expenses – you can’t sleep in the truck while it is in the shop) so that some money will actually come in next week.  Breakdown pay is only $25 per day, so that is welcome.

I also  taped up the frayed and bared cable on the satellite radio/computer that sends assignments, swept out the truck, made some instant chicken soup and cleaned all the glass and mirrors very well (yes, I remembered Dad).

And then, of course, I wrote this for y’all.

Oh, wait!  How to get “out” of “in irons”

To review, you are in your sailboat which is pointed directly into the wind.  You are making no progress and in fact are beginning to drift backward.  What you need to do is go and push the boom.  That is the horizontal pole at the bottom of the sail.

Someone asked me once why they call it the boom.  Well, what you were trying to do when you got ”in irons” was called “coming about”  you were going from zig to zag by passing through an attitude directly into the wind by momentum, carrying over to tack on the other side.  The other way to turn is downwind.  Your sail will be on one side of the boat, going downwind and when you turn through the direct-downwind direction, the sail will suddenly go from one side to the other.  Now, that pole at the bottom of the sail will whip from one side to the other very suddenly. This is called making a “jibe”. The pole, generally speaking is right about at head level for people riding in the boat.  So the “boom” is named for the sound it makes when it collides with your skull.  This is called “onomatopoeia” where words are made directly from sounds.  Other examples of this are “wham” and “hiss”.

By the way, there is usually a rope-and-pulley system between the boom and the base of the mast to cinch the boom down tightly and make better speed.  It is called the “boomvang”.  Once, back in my Geophysicist Days, there was a seismic project called “Boomvang” and nobody else in the  company knew what the heck that meant.

Where was I?

The boom…to get out of “in irons”  you go and push the boom to one side to “back wind”.  That pushes your boat backward.  At the same time, you put the rudder over to the other side, which turns the boat until wind can again fill the sail and you can tack once more on the “zag”.  This is easy on a small boat or on a big one when you have a crewman.  Otherwise, it requires agility and creativity.

In Irons,

Steve

One Fact – Introduction

stevetrucker2   Homepage OneClimateFact    Click icon or Scroll Down for More Posts

Once, I accepted – without examination – the idea that human activities might cause Global Warming.

A Geologist colleague did not debate me, but rather challenged me to research the topic and come to an informed  conclusion.

He was right and I am a Geophysicist with the tools, talent and temperament to do such  research.  That was over twenty years ago and I have since “done the math”, “paid my dues”, “done the due diligence” and examined the facts.

My conclusion is that the idea of Man-made climate change is a political fiction.

If I can get people to sit still and listen to me present the facts for an hour or so, I can show them (with facts, charts, graphs, data, references and quotes) exactly how I came to that conclusion.  That has happened a few times.  But, most people do not or will not willingly sit in a room and listen to a lecture.  It’s too much like going to school and they spent a large fraction of their youth doing that and most of them don’t want anything to do with further such activity.

So, I have come up with this idea.  Take ONE FACT about the subject and present it with clarity and completeness.  Then, do that again with another fact.

Stay Tuned!*

*Millennials:  Ask a Boomer what that means. 😉